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TOPIC: How accurate are weight loss predictions?

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November 14, 2012 6:09 PM
Hi everyone,

For those of you that have had success with using MFP I am wondering how accurate are the weight loss predictions it states after each food entry? If I stick to my daily calorie range, even if I have a slice of pizza or something, can I really expect to weigh _____ pounds in 5 weeks?

Thanks in advance for the help.
November 14, 2012 6:12 PM
very inaccurate ive seen it say 114 in 5 weeks and ive maintained it saying that for a week sometimes and i wont even lose a pound, my thing is actually saying ill be 10 pounds lighter like everyday for the last month and i gained weight recently
November 14, 2012 6:14 PM
It lies...bad
November 14, 2012 6:14 PM
This is something I'm wondering about as well, because the weight loss predictions seem extremely optimistic to me. 110-106 lbs in 5 weeks? Yeah right.
November 14, 2012 6:15 PM
In my experience not too far off - but that assumes you have set a realistic weight loss goal and you are eating around about your goal calorie.

I tracked them for a while last year and found they were pretty close somedays, but not others. The days where I got a wildly inaccurate prediction was always one where I ate very little or exercised a lot so my calories were low. As I wasn't going to do that every day for 5 weeks, I didn't expect it to come true!
November 14, 2012 6:16 PM
The site doesn't take into count of plateaus. So, watch that.

Other than that I found it to be true.

The only time I didn't get to that weight was when, for some reason, I cheated.
November 14, 2012 6:19 PM
My experience has been that it's very accurate but keep in mind that it's saying if you do the same thing EVERY day for 5 weeks that is what you'll weigh. If you go over in calories for a total of 5 days over that 5 week period you won't lose that amount.
November 14, 2012 6:20 PM
I've been pretty consistent with my logging and net calories for a year, and it's been reasonably accurate over the long run.
November 14, 2012 6:21 PM
I checked 5 weeks ago and it said I should weigh 199 today. NOT. Try 206. Maybe in ANOTHER 5 weeks I will weigh that much!
November 14, 2012 6:22 PM
It is accurate if you eat the same everyday for 5 weeks and burn the same calories everyday for 5 weeks.

I have found that the predictions in my case are taking closer to 12 weeks to be true.

So, I wouldn't read a whole lot into it or you are going to be very disappointed.
November 14, 2012 6:23 PM
It's only as accurate as the entries it bases its mathematical predictions on.
November 14, 2012 6:25 PM
Such a joke. It takes what your deficit was that day and factors it out over 5 weeks. It isn't factoring in what the rest of your week was like, which you HAVE to take into account. If you have a deficit of 500 calories that one day, but 200 calories each day the rest of the week, you will only loose about 2.5 pounds over 5 weeks, instead of the 5 pounds it is telling you that specific day. Keep in mind the "if every day was like today" notice.
November 14, 2012 6:26 PM
For some people, they're perfect. For most people, they're pretty close -- because they make assumptions based on the average metabolism. For other people, they are wildly inaccurate -- because they are based on the average metabolism. For me, they are downright hilarious.
February 18, 2013 2:11 PM
I have found it to be pretty accurate. Once I started tweaking the diet and staying in between my limit I lost weight. November 2012 I was 176lbs, 24% body fat. Now February 2013 I'm 164lbs, 13% body fat. I wasn't able to workout until the beginning of this month so all of that weight I lost was from diet. Past three weeks has been diet and exercise.

When you complete a log it says "if you eat like his you'll lose X in 5 weeks". That means if you ate that way for 5 weeks straight. Mine was different day to day bc i ate different things everyday and I still lost it. It's just a guideline really.

Also it's more about the quality of food too bc not all calories are created equal. X calories of cake is not the same as x calories of vegetable. I avoided drive threw windows, sugary treats and drinks, packaged crap... Etc. mainly just eat stuff closest to the natural source.. Fresh or frozen fruits and vegetables, lean meat, sweet potato etc. sticking to good healthy foods v dieting is the way to go and my fitness pal is pretty good with assistance. Bad fats store fat, good fats burn fat. So stuff like that pizza you mentioned will only hurt you.
Edited by freido90 On February 18, 2013 2:19 PM
March 20, 2013 6:00 PM
If you stay withing you caloric needs for the day and are eating a proper breakdown of your bodies needs for proteins, fats (good fats) and carbohydrates then it should work fine.

My protein needs are really low on this app. says something like 120 grams a day.. haha. I need over 200 a day for my muscle size.

just cant eat empty calorie foods like chips and pizza and 'as long as I hit my goal for the day I am' think you will have success

March 20, 2013 6:02 PM
It once said I would weigh 0 pounds in 5 weeks.
March 20, 2013 6:04 PM
It never dawned on me to check the accuracy. I just use it as a guide to let me know whether I'm on the right track. As in, did I have a good day or a bad one in terms of my calorie goal for the day.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I think most folks over think this entire program. Too many carbs? Not enough protein? Too much salt? What about iron?

I just think that if I am doing better than I was when I was fat, then I will continue to get better results than when I was fat. Easy peazy.


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